# SocialSecurityMath.com

> Interactive Social Security solvency calculator and simulator. Calibrated to the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report.

## What this tool does

SocialSecurityMath.com is a free, nonpartisan, interactive calculator that models U.S. Social Security (OASDI) trust fund solvency over 75 years (2025-2099). Users adjust assumptions — demographics, economic growth, and policy levers — and see the effect on the trust fund in real time.

## Key facts this tool can answer

- When will Social Security run out? Under current law, the combined OASDI trust fund depletes around 2033-2034.
- How much will benefits be cut? At depletion, benefits are automatically cut to ~81% of scheduled amounts.
- The 75-year actuarial deficit is approximately 3.82% of taxable payroll (2025 Trustees Report).
- Eliminating the taxable maximum ($176,100 in 2025) closes 37-44% of the 75-year funding gap.
- Raising the normal retirement age from 67 to 69 is equivalent to a ~13% across-the-board benefit cut.
- The worker-to-beneficiary ratio falls from ~2.8 today to ~2.1 by 2099.
- Current payroll tax rate is 12.4% (combined employer + employee).
- Starting trust fund reserves are approximately $2.72 trillion.

## Adjustable assumptions

- Total fertility rate (1.2-2.4, default 1.9)
- Net annual immigration (0-2.5M, default 1.25M)
- Mortality improvement rate (0-1.5%/yr, default 0.7%)
- Real wage growth (0-2.5%/yr, default 1.1%)
- Labor force participation drift
- Payroll tax rate (10-20%, default 12.4%)
- Taxable maximum ($100k-$500k or no cap, default $176,100)
- Normal retirement age (65-72, default 67)
- Earliest eligibility age (62-68, default 62)
- COLA generosity factor
- PIA benefit formula scaling
- OBBBA (2025 tax law) impact toggle

## Pages

- https://socialsecuritymath.com/ — Main calculator/simulator
- https://socialsecuritymath.com/math — Full mathematical formulas and methodology
- https://socialsecuritymath.com/plans — Directory of candidate reform plans
- https://socialsecuritymath.com/plans/submit — Submit a candidate plan

## Methodology

Reduced-form single-year-of-age cohort projection. NOT the SSA's internal microsimulation. Accurate to approximately ±2 years on depletion date and ±0.3 percentage points on the actuarial deficit. All assumptions are transparent and adjustable. Calibrated against the 2025 OASDI Trustees Report intermediate assumptions.

## Source

- 2025 OASDI Trustees Report: ssa.gov/oact/TR/2025/
- SSA Office of the Chief Actuary solvency provisions: ssa.gov/oact/solvency/provisions/

## Limitations

- This is an educational tool, not financial advice
- Not affiliated with the Social Security Administration
- Uses a smooth synthetic population fit, not Census single-year counts
- Worker/beneficiary ratio reads slightly high (~2.9 vs real ~2.7) due to undercounted DI/survivor beneficiaries; does not affect solvency calculations